Life rarely hands us neat examples, though. Events mix, overlap, depend on past outcomes and human behaviour. That’s where ...

Proportional reasoning failures seem to constitute most errors in probabilistic reasoning, yet there is little empirical evidence about its role for attaining probabilistic knowledge and how to ...

Robbins (1968) considered the problem of estimating the total probability of the unobserved outcomes of an experiment. In this paper we suggest an estimator, based on n trials, and show that under ...